The paper
Using transaction records from international parcel deliveries, this article studies both the length and the predictability of transport times. It shows why reliable delivery matters alongside faster delivery in international trade.
Research findings
- Longer international transit times and greater variation in those times are both associated with lower bilateral goods trade.
- Transit time matters especially for trade among developing countries, while uncertainty is relatively more important for trade among developed countries.
Policy takeaways
- Measure delivery reliability as well as average speed when setting trade-facilitation and logistics priorities.
- Look beyond customs clearance to the performance of international transport connections, and tailor priorities to the trading routes involved.